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In that cycle, as well, the dating of the trough relied primarily on output measures.
Q: Isn't a recession a period of diminished economic activity?
A: The unemployment rate is a trendless indicator that moves in the opposite direction from most other cyclical indicators.
Its level in February 1949 was the same 4.7 percent as in November 2007.
The time in between is a recession, a period when economic activity is contracting. As of September 2010, when we decided that a trough had occurred in June 2009, the economy was still weak, with lingering high unemployment, but had expanded considerably from its trough 15 months earlier.
Q: How do the movements of unemployment claims inform the Bureau's thinking?
Consequently, we picked the peak month based on the clear signal in employment, as well as our consideration of output and other measures.Third, we consider the depth of the decline in economic activity.Recall that our definition includes the phrase, "a significant decline in activity." Fourth, in examining the behavior of domestic production, we consider not only the conventional product-side GDP estimates, but also the conceptually equivalent income-side GDI estimates.A: Most of the recessions identified by our procedures do consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but not all of them.In 2001, for example, the recession did not include two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.